Dark Star

The assumption among most observers seems to be that Barack Obama will get a bounce in the polls from his trip to Afghanistan and Iraq, the Middle East, and western Europe. But it's not apparent in the polls that have come in to date. Gallup tracking shows him with a 46 percent-to-42 percent lead, about what he's had since clinching the Democratic nomination June 3. Rasmussen tracking shows him ahead by just 47 percent to 45 percent and the day before had the race at a 46 percent-to-46 percent tie. The Detroit News poll shows Obama leading in Michigan by only 43 percent to 41 percent, and there is some good news for John McCain in the recent Rasmussen poll in Ohio showing McCain ahead 46 percent to 40 percent. This last is a contrast with another poll in Ohio, showing Obama ahead 48 percent to 40 percent, conducted by the North Carolina Democratic firm PPP, whose record this cycle seems to me to have been erratic.

I will be pleasantly surprised if this is the way it goes. Obama has acted with sheer arrogance on this trip. It's so bad that even the Washington Post has been critical. And there have been a couple of instances of somebody having to remind Obama's staff that he is not the President of the United States - yet.

Barone goes on to say there could be trouble for Obama overall on the anti-war tack he's sticking to:

Another interesting result from Rasmussen. He now shows that voters believe the United States is winning rather than losing the war on terrorism by a 51 percent-to-16 percent margin. A year ago, in July 2007, the numbers were 36 percent to 36 percent. That's a big change. It could mean that voters will want to continue something like the current approach, which would be good news for McCain. Or it could mean that voters will decide that we don't need to worry about terrorism much anymore, which would be good news for Obama. Stay tuned. I don't think the voters' decision-making process is complete yet.

__