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The Corner on National Review Online

The RCP average for Ohio is Obama +4.6, but the latest Mason-Dixon poll has McCain +2.

I'll let more qualified augurs argue over what that means, but it has the local press here buzzing.

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Power Line - The Fat Lady Is Still Warming Up

From Drudge: Zogby's polling yesterday had John McCain pulling into a one-point lead, 48-47, over Barack Obama. That result is an outlier, I suppose, but Obama has never been able to seal the deal with the voters and quite a few remain undecided, one in seven according to a recent AP poll. Throughout the campaign, McCain has made a series of runs where it looked as though he might catch up, only to fall back again. And the state by state polls continue, for some reason, to look worse for McCain than the national numbers.

Still, I have a feeling that once you get past his core constituencies, Obama's support is very thin. The fact that he has had to try to cast himself as a tax-cutter is revealing. Does anyone really believe it? True, there's a sucker born every minute, but still... If there really are voters who have contemplated voting for Obama on what are essentially conservative grounds, it would not be surprising if some of them shift their allegiance between now and Tuesday.

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Pew: Obama on pace to break 50% - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

Obama leads John McCain 52 percent to 46 percent, by Pew’s measure, which projects that McCain will win undecided voters by a slight margin.

Pew’s final pre-election poll in 2004, including its projection of the undecided vote, correctly predicted that George W. Bush would defeat John Kerry 51 to 48 percent.

When undecided voters are excluded, Obama's lead in the Pew poll increases slightly, to 49-42.

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The Campaign Spot on National Review Online

Except for Zogby last night, McCain hasn’t led in a poll since the last week in September and anybody who starts predicting a McCain victory in the face of that record is more than a little sporting.

But saying the race is over strikes me as just as emotional and un-thoughtful. I’m a real skeptic about huge turnout predictions but the interest levels this year really do show an unprecedented level of interest, perhaps as many as 25 million new voters. And here’s the point—those interest levels are up among McCain-leaning groups too. Are the media and the Obama blitz motivating the conservative base too? These aren’t questions aren’t being raised and they should be. The media was so surprised that Bush won in 2004 because the conservative turnout was higher. What’s going on with it this year?

With so much at stake I hate to sound clinical, but this election is a classic. When it’s over we are going to know a lot more about politics and culture in 21st century America. And Zogby.

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Investor's Business Daily TIPP Tracking Poll (which was the most accurate last time around, has the the spread at only 2.1% for Obama.

And a final word...