Polls, Accuracy, and the Bradley Effect
Ann Coulter takes a look at past presidential polls and finds some reassuring news. Polls are friendly to the Liberals.
Ann Coulter: Eighty-Four Percent Say They'd Never Lie To A Pollster
Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points...
If true, this is more than enough to cover the spread in the polls we're seeing right now, and I have a feeling that the numbers will get closer as we close in on election day. My personal feeling is that if Obama doesn't have at least a 6 point lead in Zogby and/or Rasmussen going into the booth, it's going to be a tight McCain win.
Right now, pre-debate, those two polls have Obama up by 5 and 4, respectively. Zogby has a margin of error of +/- 3 points. Rasmussen's MOE is +/- 2 points.
Of course, these are the national tracking polls. It all comes down to the state polls. But it's generally agreed that the national tracking polls are reliable indicators the closer we get to the election.
11:43 AM
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