Dark Star

From Dick Morris:

The primaries are over. Obama's European tour is over. The conventions are over. The VP selections have been made and, incredibly, this race is right back where it has been since the spring: a narrow Obama lead.When the financial crisis overshadowed the Palin bounce, you could almost hear the race clicking back into its former position with Obama between one and three points ahead of McCain. (Don't worry about the margin of error. With 50 polls showing the same thing, the cumulative chance of error is negligible). Except for an Obama bulge after Hillary's withdrawal and on his return from Europe and a McCain bounce after his convention and the Palin selection, Obama has remained slightly ahead for five months. Because the race has been in this holding pattern for so long, it will be very hard for McCain to break into the lead. He must do so in the debates and probably has to take the lead after the first contest this coming Friday.

I wonder, though. What significance have debates had in the past, statistically speaking. Throw out Nixon's 5 o'clock shadow. What's the data say?

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