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The numbers are close, the opinions are polar opposite.

Are Tightening Polls a Sign of a John McCain Surge? - Michael Barone (usnews.com)

The tracking polls seem to show the presidential race tightening. Rasmussen numbers released this morning show Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by only 50 percent to 47 percent—the narrowest margin in Rasmussen polls for more than a month and the first time McCain has been over 46 percent since September 24 (nine days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and two days before the first debate). Gallup's tracking released yesterday showed McCain behind by only 49 percent to 47 percent on its traditional-turnout model but behind by a much larger 51 percent to 44 percent on its expanded model.

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HOPE FOR MCCAIN at DickMorris.com

Iraq isn’t the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain’s gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.

The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama’s heels.

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Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

After several weeks of John McCain’s campaign attacks on Barack Obama’s tax plan and idea of “spreading the wealth around”, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds voters trust McCain more than Obama on taxes, 47% to 45%.

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Power Line - The Race Is Getting Closer

Barack Obama's national lead over John McCain is down to two points in Gallup's "traditional" turnout poll, and this morning Rasmussen Reports has Obama's lead dwindling to three points. The Rasmussen result is especially significant, I think.

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The Weekly Standard

One month ago, Obama was up nine points on this crucial issue. McCain continues to outperform the generic Republican ticket by a longshot, and while Obama leads in six of ten top issues for Americans, Obama led in all 10 last month.

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McCain pollster predicts massive turnout - Mike Allen - Politico.com

The pollster for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) predicted Monday that 130 million people – the highest percentage of eligible voters in American history – will turn out in this presidential election.

“Turn-out IS going to go through the roof,” McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, says in a strategy memo released to the press. “Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.”

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Pajamas Media » Ten Reasons Why McCain Could Still Win

The media is telling voters, especially Republican voters, that the presidential race is over. The handwriting is on the wall. The fat lady is singing. Don’t even bother to vote.

But wait, isn’t there an election next week? After all this, don’t voters have a choice?

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Pajamas Media » Ten Reasons Why McCain Doesn’t Have a Prayer

Here are the top 10 reasons why McCain doesn’t have a prayer.

10. About those tracking polls…

There is no doubt the tracking polls for Rasmussen, Gallup, Zogby and the rest have been narrowing of late. But the movement toward McCain has been a ripple when he needs a virtual tsunami. You can cherry-pick polls based on “likely voters” or “registered voters” or, as Gallup has done, on a different model of “likely voters.” No matter what side you’re on, you will probably find ammunition for your argument.

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UNDECIDEDS SHOULD BREAK FOR MCCAIN at DickMorris.com

If current survey trends continue, Obama will finish with less than 50 percent in the polls. Even discounting the Nader vote (some people never learn), the undecided voters could tip the race either way. How will they break?

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Undecideds an unlikely ‘life raft’ for McCain - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

A Pew analysis concluded that undecideds will likely split equally for McCain and Obama on Election Day.
Photo: AP

The pool of undecided voters remains as large as one in 10, but John McCain can hardly rely on them to overtake Barack Obama. According to past election results, those voters who decided in the last week of a campaign are unlikely to break decisively for either candidate and dramatically alter Tuesday's race.

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